The Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) Risk Calculator was developed and validated in 1.1 million women undergoing mammography across the United States, among whom 18,000 were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC Risk Calculator has been externally validated in the Mayo Mammography Health Study. The BCSC Risk Calculator is an interactive tool designed by scientists that participate in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium to estimate a woman's five-year risk of developing invasive breast cancer. In 2015, the BCSC risk calculator has been updated to include benign breast disease diagnoses and to estimate both five-year and ten-year breast cancer risk.

The BCSC Risk Calculator was designed for use by health professionals. If you are not a health professional, you are encouraged to discuss the results and your personal risk of breast cancer with your health care provider.

The calculator is NOT applicable to women that meet any of the following criteria:

  • Younger than age 35 or older than age 74
  • Previous diagnosis of breast cancer
  • Previous diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS)
  • Previous breast augmentation
  • Previous mastectomy

More specific methods of estimating risk are appropriate for women known to have breast cancer-producing mutations in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. For more information, please visit:

Five- and ten-year breast cancer risk calculations are based on five factors:

  1. Age
  2. Race/ethnicity
  3. Family history of breast cancer in a first-degree relative (mother, sister or daughter)
  4. History of a breast biopsy (core biopsy, excisional biopsy or fine-needle aspiration) with benign breast disease diagnoses if known
  5. BI-RADS® breast density (radiologic assessment of the density of breast tissue by a radiologist who interprets mammograms)
  • The risk calculator calculates risk only when information on all five of the above factors are put into the calculator. Unknown values are allowed for race/ethnicity and family history.

The BCSC Risk Calculator may be updated as new data or research becomes available. Current version 2.0.

Reference for validation of risk model in the Mayo Mammography Health Study
Vachon CM, Pankratz VS, Scott CG, Haeberle L, Ziv E, Jensen MR, Brandt KR, Whaley DH, Olson JE, Heusinger K, Hack CC, Jud SM, Beckmann MW, Schulz-Wendtland R, Tice JA, Norman AD, Cunningham JM, Purrington KS, Easton DF, Sellers TA, Kerlikowske K, Fasching PA, Couch FJ. The contributions of breast density and common genetic variation to breast cancer risk. J Natl Cancer Inst 2015;107(5). pii: dju397. doi: 10.1093/jnci/dju397. PMC4598340.
Reference for validation of risk model in the Metro Chicago Breast Cancer Registry
Tice JA, Bissell MCS, Miglioretti DL, Gard CC, Rauscher GH, Dabbous FM, Kerlikowske K. Validation of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium model of breast cancer risk. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2019 Feb 22. doi: 10.1007/s10549-019-05167-2.

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